This study compares perceptions in China and Taiwan regarding military unification and threat. Drawing on recent national survey data in China and long-term representative surveys in Taiwan, the findings reveal a widening gap. Many in China favor the use of force and often assume strong support for unification in Taiwan, though views differ across social groups and fall into distinct orientations ranging from moderates to militant hardliners. In Taiwan, confidence in China’s development has steadily declined, more people view China as a threat, and unification support remains marginal. Preference for maintaining the status quo is dominant, while support for independence has grown. Despite consistent willingness to resist aggression, confidence in Taiwan’s defense capacity has weakened, alongside stronger expectations of U.S. support. These mutually reinforcing perceptions sustain polarization across the Strait and raise concerns for regional stability and global security.

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